NEW POLL: Independent Seth Bodnar Takes the Lead in Montana’s U.S. Senate Race

Montanans of every party are rallying behind former Green Beret and Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, while Kurt Alme’s favorability sinks 17 points underwater

MISSOULA, MT — A new poll from Concord Public Opinion Partners shows former U.S. Army Green Beret and Independent candidate Seth Bodnar leading Republican Kurt Alme in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, 37 percent to 35 percent, with Democrat Alani Bankhead at 13 percent and Libertarian Kyle Austin at 1 percent. Thirteen percent of voters are undecided.

“Montanans are done letting Washington D.C. party bosses pick their senator,” said Bodnar campaign spokesperson Kelly Webster. “Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are coming together behind Seth Bodnar because he’s the only candidate in this race who answers to them. Kurt Alme was handpicked by the MAGA party machine, Alani Bankhead is propped up by Republican super PAC, and Montanans have taken notice. The momentum is real, ballots are in mailboxes, and we’re going to win this race.”

Key findings:

Bodnar leads the race. Bodnar leads Alme 37 to 35, and Alme runs three points behind a generic Republican congressional candidate in Montana.
Bodnar is the only candidate voters view favorably. Bodnar’s net favorability is +6. Alme’s is −17, and Bankhead’s is −14.
Bodnar is winning Republicans. Bodnar draws 29 percent of likely Republicans and 24 percent of somewhat likely Republicans.
Democrats are consolidating behind Bodnar. Among modeled Democrats, Bodnar leads Bankhead by 45 points, 62 percent to 17 percent.
Montanans have soured on Washington’s agenda. President Trump’s favorability in Montana stands at 41 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable.

The survey was conducted October 6 to 8, 2026, among 405 likely general election voters, via live calls to cell phones and landlines and text-to-web surveys. The margin of error is ±4.87 percentage points. Data was weighted by race, age, gender, college education, party, and congressional district.

Seth Bodnar is a Green Beret, business leader, and former president of the University of Montana running for the U.S. Senate to be an independent voice for Montana. Seth is guided by a lifelong commitment to duty, honor, and country. He graduated first in his class at West Point and served multiple overseas deployments, leading soldiers in the 101st Airborne Division and the 1st Special Forces Group, and serving as a special advisor to the commanding general in Iraq. After his military service and a successful career in business, Seth spent the last eight years leading the University of Montana. Under his leadership, the university achieved record high graduation rates, doubled research funding, launched the largest infrastructure renewal in campus history, restored financial stability, and was named the #1 military-friendly university in the country. Raised by two public school teachers, he believes leadership is about service, not party loyalty. Seth and his wife, a fifth-generation Montanan, are raising their three children in Montana.

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