NEW POLL: Independent Seth Bodnar Gaining Ground, Winning Montana's Largest Voting Bloc and a Majority of Democrats

While both Republican and Democrat nominees bleed support, Independent candidate Seth Bodnar posts a seven-point gain and leads with Independents and crossover Democratic support

MISSOULA, MT — A new Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll shows Independent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar surging seven points since spring, the largest gain of any candidate in the race, while both major party nominees have lost significant ground over the same period.

“Montanans are sick and tired of a broken political system that breeds corruption and drives up our costs,” said Bodnar. “Neither national party owns this state, and neither one gets to take us for granted anymore. We are going to win this race in November, and we're going to do it together, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. My party is Montana, and this poll shows that message is resonating and it's growing faster than any of the candidates in this race can keep up with.”

The poll shows Bodnar winning Montana's largest voting bloc outright: Independents, who make up 44 percent of the electorate, back Bodnar over Democrat Alani Bankhead by more than two to one, 38 percent to 18 percent, and Bodnar leads Bankhead among Independents even against Republican Kurt Alme.

“Despite a summer of non-stop attacks from Republican dark money groups, Seth is gaining ground while Alani Bankhead is losing her own party's voters in real time and Kurt Alme can't even hold onto the base he inherited from a backroom deal,” said Abigail Tracy, spokesperson for the Bodnar campaign. “Montanans are seeing both candidates for what they are, and they're moving toward the only candidate in this race who actually answers to them.”

The poll also confirms what many Montana Democrats have been saying publicly for months: Bodnar is the best choice in this race, and a majority of self-identified Democratic voters, 53 percent, say they'd vote for Bodnar over their own party's nominee.

Meanwhile, Republican nominee Kurt Alme, installed on the ballot without a primary after Senator Steve Daines's last-minute withdrawal, saw his own support decline since spring, and picked up only 78 percent of the previous Republican Senate nominee's 2024 voters, with the remainder splitting toward Bodnar and the Libertarian candidate.

Seth Bodnar is a Green Beret, business leader, and former president of the University of Montana running for the U.S. Senate to be an independent voice for Montana. Seth is guided by a lifelong commitment to duty, honor, and country. He graduated first in his class at West Point and served multiple overseas deployments, leading soldiers in the 101st Airborne Division and the 1st Special Forces Group, and serving as a special advisor to the commanding general in Iraq. After his military service and a successful career in business, Seth spent the last eight years leading the University of Montana. Under his leadership, the university achieved record high graduation rates, doubled research funding, launched the largest infrastructure renewal in campus history, restored financial stability, and was named the #1 military-friendly university in the country. Raised by two public school teachers, he believes leadership is about service, not party loyalty. Seth and his wife, a fifth-generation Montanan, are raising their three children in Montana.

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